Selection Sunday is over and it’s time for everyone to make their picks.
I’ve done well in recent years, including last year when I picked all 16 Sweet Sixteen teams and only missed one first-round game. I was in the 99th percentile of all brackets (probably the only time I’ll be in the 1 percent) and in previous years I have finished in the top 10 percent of all brackets a few times.
I should note that no one person has all the answers. This is the NCAA Men’s Division I basketball tournament. Anybody can beat anybody on any given day. Upsets happen all the time. While there are some trends and some tips you can pick up on it is extremely difficult to decide on what teams to pick and who might be cutting down the nets the first week of April. Ladies and gentleman, this is March Madness at its finest.
Overrated:
I’m not sold on Syracuse. While they are a good team and did manage to grab a No. 1 seed, they do have very tough teams in their bracket. Florida State was the only team in history to beat both Duke and North Carolina twice in the same year and Ohio State could be a tough match-up as well if they make it past Wisconsin who was a part of a very good Big Ten this year.
My notable upsets:
Michigan (4) vs. Ohio (13)
I’m particularly intrigued by the Michigan (4) vs. Ohio (13) match-up in the Midwest bracket. If either of Ohio’s guards can have a big game, then Michigan will have their hands full with Ohio and possibly get upset. If the winner of California or University of South Florida beats Temple (something I find highly unlikely) you could see Ohio making it to the Sweet Sixteen to play Syracuse.
San Diego State (6) vs. North Carolina State (11)
San Deigo State comes from a ‘little house on the prairie’ conference. Not to mention that they’ve had a few poor showings against some teams in the tournament. I think N.C. State, coming out of the tough Atlantic Coast Conference will come out ready to play and upset.
Upset Alert:
Two games I think that might surprise everyone are the Wichita State (5) vs. Virginia Commonwealth University (12) match-up in the south bracket and the Wisconsin (4) vs. Montana (13) match-up in the east bracket.
Montana won the Big Sky tournament to get into the field of 68. They have won their last 19 games in a row and I generally don’t bet against a hot team come tournament time. Montana has two very good guards that will be a handful for Wisconsin and should play well. However, Wisconsin finished fourth in the Big Ten this year and as I mentioned before it’s one of the toughest divisions in the NCAA. I see this as being a possibility but not a likelihood that this will take place.
As a general rule, I go with my gut and my gut is telling me to pick Wichita State over VCU. I didn’t pick any miraculous things this year (I picked six of the top eight seeds for the Elite Eight) and this has me a little bothered. If there is one team that has a few favorable match-ups, it’s VCU.
Don’t overlook Xavier (10) over Duke (2) in the second round. No. 2 seeds are only 28-20 all-time against No. 10 seeds and Xavier is a tough tournament team that can give a better team fits if they show up to play. One of my general rules is to never go against coach K, however that move has come back to bite me in recent years.
